Item 9 on my 2-year Treasurer’s “To Do” list is “Identify and communicate challenges”.

My first congregational meeting in February, 2014 identified the impacts of our shrinking membership. Since that time, we have dropped another 44 members. Using a model I created last summer that allows me to project our profit and loss to 2020 by varying over 20 different assumptions (membership, salary increases, rent, etc.), I showed two very different versions of UUCB’s financial future at the February 2015 congregational meeting:

The difference is almost entirely the pledge increase this year, plus a path that adds 92 members rather than losing another 33. The difficulty with the chart on the left (“business as usual”) is that there appears to be no recovery other than slashing expenses, which means people. Unless we are prepared to replace employees with significant volunteer hours, it also means reducing programs like Family Ministry, Music, and Ministry, which becomes a long term downward spiral. While short term borrowing from the endowment could help us through a down time, unless there is a path to paying it back, it could lead to an even smaller congregation with very few options.

You can find the full report on the Membership Table.